Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures posted sharp 5 to 7 1/4 cent losses in most contracts on Tuesday. Weaker ethanol prices and lack of Export Sales news is weighing on the demand market. The weekly EIA report will be released per the normal Wednesday morning schedule. According the DTN’s nation corn index, the average cash price for corn was $3.45 3/4 on Monday evening, which is 29 1/2 cents above last year. That would peg basis at -32 3/4 cents, 3/4 of a cent weaker than the same day in 2018. A Ukrainian consultant firm estimates that the country will export 25.75 MMT of corn in the July-June 18/19 time period.

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.79 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.87 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.91 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures saw most contracts fall 9 to 10 1/2 cents on Tuesday, despite a supportive NOPA report. Soymeal futures were down $2.50/ton, with soy oil 16 points lower. This morning’s monthly NOPA report indicated its members crushed a December record 171.759 mbu of soybeans, just shy of the second largest monthly total set back in March. That was 2.87% larger than November and 3.28% above December 2017, as it outpaced expectations of 170.016 mbu. Soybean oil stocks were at 1.498 billion pounds, slightly above the month prior but down 1.33% from December 2017 and lighter than most trade guesses.

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $8.93 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.06 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.19 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.28 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal closed at $309.30, down $2.50,

Mar 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.24, down $0.16

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures closed the Tuesday session with most contracts 1 to 4 cents lower. Japan’s Ministry of Ag is back with their weekly tender of 111,961 MT of wheat from Australia, Canada, and the US. The results are due on Thursday, with 52,971 MT sought from the US. Ukrainian exports of wheat are seen at 15.5 MMT according to an estimate from APK-Inform on Tuesday. USDA’s most recent estimate was 16.5 MMT. As of 1/11, Russian FOB prices were $12.80/ton above US SRW prices at the Gulf. That should help US wheat to look more attractive internationally, though a stronger dollar did not help.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.11, down 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.95 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.62, down 3 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures settled Tuesday with the front months 75 cents to $1.525 higher and deferred contracts lower. Feeder cattle futures were mostly higher on Tuesday, with nearby Jan a dime lower. The CME feeder cattle index was down 21 cents on January 14 at $144.44. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were 19 cents higher at $212.21, with Select up 41 cents at $205.87. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 239,000 head through Tuesday. That is 2,000 head above last week and 6,000 head larger than the same week last year. Wednesday’s FCE online auction has 542 head listed for sale at the moment.

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $126.950, up $1.525,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $127.425, up $0.750,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $117.050, down $0.125,

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.750, down $0.100

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.750, up $0.350

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.500, up $0.350

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were mixed on Tuesday, with nearby contracts 12.5 to 30 cents higher and back months slightly lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 52 cents from the previous day @ $57.21 on January 11. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 86 cents on Tuesday afternoon at an average weighted price of $70.33. The belly was the only primal lower on the day, down $12.59. The national base cash hog carcass value was 29 cents lower in the PM report, with a weighted average of $51.46. FI hog slaughter WTD was estimated at 943,000 head through Tuesday, which is down 11,000 head from last week but 105,000 larger than the same week last year. China’s Ag Ministry reported on Tuesday that the country has culled 916,000 head of hogs due to the African Swine Fever (ASF), which is just a fraction of their more than 400 million hog herd. There are very few provinces remaining where the disease has not been confirmed.

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $62.150, up $0.300,

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $66.950, up $0.125

May 19 Hogs closed at $71.975, down $0.200

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures posted 63 to 90 point losses in most contracts on Turnaround Tuesday. The Dollar was stronger on the day. The Cotton Association of India cut their crop estimate to 33.5 million lakh bales. They also reduced exports to 2.4 million lakh bales. This only 47% of last year’s exports, leaving some room for the US. Trade sources report that Asian demand is picking up with cotton futures down in the low 70’s. The Cotlook A Index was down 25 points on January 14 to 82.15 cents/lb.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 72.360, down 63 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 73.720, down 79 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 74.890, down 90 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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