Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures posted 4 to 6 cent gains in the nearby contracts on Thursday. DTN’s national corn index was at $3.42 on Wednesday evening, 22 1/4 cents above last year. That put national basis at -32 cents, just 1/4 cent weaker than the same time in 2018. Export demand has been better this MY, but weaker ethanol margins have a negative impact on basis. South Korean feed importers purchased another 129,000 MT of optional origin corn in separate private purchases on Thursday. BAGE indicated that 86.1% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted, behind the 91.2% average. Conditions of the emerged crop are 55.3% gd/ex, which is well above the same time last year.

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.80, up 6 cents,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.88, up 5 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.95 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.98 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures found strength after midday with most contracts closing 11 to 13 1/4 cents higher. Soymeal futures were up $2.10/ton, with soy oil 54 points higher. Support came from rumors that US Treasury Sec Mnuchin is contemplating lifting some or all of the tariffs on Chinese imports ahead of next week’s meeting. At this point those are just rumors and were denied by Treasury. On Wednesday afternoon, the national soybean cash index was at $8.03 per DTN data, down 96 1/2 cents yr/yr. Against the newly appointed front month March, that put basis at -91 1/2 cents, 23 cents weaker than a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that 38.9% of the Argentine soybean crop is blooming (avg 45.7%) as they cut planted acreage by 494,000 acres to 43.74 million acres. They also rated the crop at 51.2% gd/ex, compared to last year’s conditions of 35% for this week.

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.07 3/4, up 13 1/4 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.21, up 13 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.34, up 13 1/4 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.41, up 11 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal closed at $312.20, up $2.10,

Mar 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.77, up $0.54

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures posted 5 to 8 1/2 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday, following the rest of the grain complex. Japan purchased 111,961 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender from Australia, Canada, and the US, with 52,971 MT US specific. Strategie Grans trimmed their 19/20 EU soft wheat production estimate by 0.6 to 146.4 MMT. That would be 15.18% larger than the 18/19 crop of 127.1 MMT. There is also a little talk about potential winter kill on winter wheat, but percentage of the crop with snow cover and the actual low temps observed on bare fields will be the determinants. It also tends to be difficult to prove until the spring green up.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.17 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.04, up 8 1/2 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.72, up 7 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures closed the Thursday session with most contracts 60 to 85 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were down 72.5 cents to $2.35 in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.10 on January 16 at $143.09. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 57 cents at $212.50, with Select up 70 cents at $207.64. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 480,000 head through Thursday. That is 3,000 head above last week and 13,000 head larger than the same week last year. Cash trade so far this week has been limited with bids of $197 in NE vs. asks of $202-203.

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $127.100, down $0.725,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $126.900, down $0.825,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $116.825, down $0.675,

Jan 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.425, down $2.350

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.925, down $1.775

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.225, down $1.325

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were 20 to 45 cents lower in most contracts on Thursday, with nearby Feb up 80 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 37 cents from the previous day @ $58.02 on January 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 46 cents on Thursday afternoon at an average weighted price of $70.10. The national base cash hog carcass value was 33 cents lower in the PM report, with a weighted average of $51.44. FI hog slaughter WTD was estimated at 1.896 million head through Thursday, which is 188,000 larger than the same week last year.

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $60.850, up $0.800,

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $64.625, down $0.450

May 19 Hogs closed at $70.625, down $0.200

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures ended Thursday with most nearby contracts 108 to 112 points higher. Support was from suspected short covering as rumors were floating around that the US considering lifting some Chinese import tariffs. Those rumors were not confirmed by the USTR or Treasury. The Cotlook A Index was down 55 points on January 16 to 81.90 cents/lb. With the government now in day 27 of the shutdown, we still don’t have a good grip on how exports have been performing over the past month. Estimated AWP was 63.06 last week, and computes to 64.07 for the coming week.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 74.370, up 110 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 75.660, up 112 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 76.790, up 108 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.